Re: $33 - Bubble squeeze play.
You wrote OP holds 25% of the prize pool when he folds, and 28% when he pushes. You must mean hero, right? I'm not running numbers on this, but if he folds, and UTG loses, hero's already in the money, and if UTG wins, Hero still has over 1/4 of the chips. So 25% has to be way too low.
In these situations, your goals are:
1)Two other people go at it.
2)You win without a contest.
3)You win a showdown.
To go contrary to this would require a very good hand. In General you'd much rather have someone else take on the short stack.
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