[Superfluous Man]

Hand 1: Fine.

Hand 2: This is a death wish raise. You have enough chips to do something other than jam, and AT/KJ isn't calling you here.

Hand 3: I bet T30-45 on the flop. Then I bet the turn, 1/2-3/4 pot again.

Why didn't you bet the river here? By checking, you're saying "take this pot away from me!" And he's evidently hearing what you have to say. If you bet something like T200 and he raises, you can be fairly sure your 2p is beaten and fold without regret (just about nobody in the $33s is raising that river with something worse than 2p).

That said, this river decision is pretty difficult, and it's very read dependent. I've been running hot recently when it comes to picking off bluffs, but even so...ugh. I guess I fold and cry when he shows A3o.

I guess I'll justify this fold with two reasons. 1) I think I'm beat more than 40% of the time in this spot (maybe a flush, or a weirdly played set, or something), so I'm not getting the pot odds I need to pick this off, though the overbet does reek of a bluff and fill me with curiosity. 2) My stack is at a point where I'm comfortable. If I double up, I'm practically a lock to get ITM. If not, I have enough to do a bit of bullying (and outplaying) on the bubble.