[fimbulwinter]

I'll give my two cents in general about stealing and let people derive what they will from it.

At the very beginning of a poker player's career, they can't even read the board. someone with top pair who is playing for the first time won't realize that the guy who's now betting big after that third club hit probably has a flush.

in this kind of game, the most rudimentary strategy wins. play better cards. make a hand that beats your opponent's range and bet big. push allin preflop with aces. almost no deviation from just knowing hand values and how to read a board is needed.

as our opponents become more and more consicous, we must move away from this easy play and do some sub-optimal things to get paid. stealing is one of them.

Just like all other deviations from a simple strategy, it should only be done when simple strategy not longer earns optimally. Metagame is just one facet that can be used when assessing if an FPS'y play is best, but in general such considerations are overemphasized.

Remember that your steal is just another form of a semibluff. you are raising with a hand that doesn't figure to be best but has outs (bluffing and real). That's why you will almost never catch me stealing with complete trash. i'll steal with offsuit connectors, i'll steal with sooted crap, but i won't steal with trash because i need those few flops where i can really push back hard as a subsidy.

remember that making plays should only be done when the standard play becomes a loser. In this case, mucking this hand is the winning play.

fim