Re: What do you think of my play
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Unless I really hose my EV calc, it looks like a good bet,
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Beavis - You didn’t hose your EV calc. You did a good job. Your 1.5 was a very good estimation of the effect of only winning half the pot. You (properly) dropped the flush cards that also paired the board from your “clean” outs. Good job!
It looks like a good bet to me too.
I did the calculation slightly differently. I included implied pot values for the fourth betting round. I also dropped the two “dirty” flush outs (the cards that made the flush but paired the board) from all consideration and used 42 as my denominator, rather than 44.
I ended up with a slightly different value than yours for E.V. (0.606). But it’s in the same ball park as your estimation. In terms of using the odds or E.V. to estimate your chances of success, I think pretty close is good enough. At some point it becomes a matter of reading your opponents anyway, and recognizing if they’re representing far fetched possibilities with their bets or not. The thing you don’t want to be doing, in my humble opinion, is grossly mis-estimating the odds or E.V. so that you’re bucking the odds.
just my opinion,
Buzz
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