[LearnedfromTV]

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Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

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19 is right to make a flush or straight, but the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is probably not an out, so you win 18/42 of the time (lets say the times you have another out or two, like the T, or the times he's straight bluffing or better a worse draw, balance with the times he has you blocked.) Since a lot of the hands that have a set have blockers/share some of your outs, it is probably better to be safe and say you have a little less than 18/42, so say 42% equity (instead of 43).

You have to push because the pot will be too big to fold for 100 more even with a pair of tens.

So you are putting in 1494 to win 1494*2+1332 = 4320.

.42*4320 = $1814, so pushing is the play.

If you like to think in terms of odds the pot is laying you 2-1 (roughly, exactly it's 2826:1494) and your odds against making the winner are ~ 1.35 to 1, or slightly worse than 24:18)

Edited to fix the math a bit.