[OrangeKing]

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You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

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Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

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I disagree somewhat. In recent years, female candidates for Senate have been overwhelmingly successful when they've run (in other words - there aren't that many female Senators, but the relatively few female candidates for Senate have been extremely successful). Of course, running for president is a different animal, and may not be quite as kind since it'll be the first time a woman has seriously run for the office. It's a handicap, but a relatively small one, especially considering that the overwhelming majority of people who still wouldn't vote for a female candidate (and that group is a fairly small percentage of the population - 25% at most) wouldn't vote for a Democrat either.

Her larger problem comes from the fact that there are a large than usual number of people who specifically won't vote for her. There's always a large section of the country who won't vote for any given candidate, but the anti-Hillary vote is larger than usual given how much she's been demonized over the years.

All that said, if she runs in 2008, which looks likely, she'll be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination - not in absolute terms, but over any other candidate out there. If she gets the nomination, I don't think she's any worse than 35-40% to win the general election. I have a feeling that if you did research and plugged the numbers in, you'd come out with a little less than the value you needed at 6-1. 10-1 and I'd take it.