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If you believe in God and are right you get heaven. If you are wrong you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are right you get dirt.
If you don't believe in God and are wrong you get hell.

Clearly +EV to believe in God.

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Clearly not. I don't want to be rude but this silly idea was killed off years ago and many times. I'm not doing it again so use the search function if you care.

chez

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I also explained how Pascal's wager is not analogous to the argument that I'm making here. It's not just that believing in free will is +EV - it's that believing in determinism is completely meaningless.