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No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.
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Jason hit the nail on the head and this is a fold and is exaclty what I did; great job Jason.
With such a low PFR (4%) from the BB, my overcards are out the window. The cold caller wasn't a total moran, he stats were something like 40/25/0.9 therefore he likely had a hand that falls in or around this flop. Both players I had nearly 5k hands on.
This hand went to a showdown, the button raised the flop and the BB called. Turn was J-offsuit it was checked through and the river w/Q, BB bet w/AK and button called w/AT.
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