Re: Making him fold a better hand
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Is a flop bet here mandatory? Or even +EV?
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If I put the guy on such a narrow range of hands, no it's certainly not mandatory, or even +EV. But I tend to put people on to narrow hand ranges so I bet in case he has overs.
By the tone of your post it sounds as though you don't consider a flop bet +EV, which is interesting since most people that have responded so far said that I should 3-bet the flop. If the flop bet isn't +EV, then the 3-bet should be very -EV.
All that being said, I'm not sure the flop bet isn't +EV since, despite his low PFR, he may know that the MP dude is loose and cap more lightly. Maybe 11 % PFR's do cap AK/AQ etc preflop in a 3-way pot, or maybe his emotional state of mind made him play a bit more aggro than usual.
So, how often do you think this particular player has 2 overs or a pair of 9's after his flop raise?
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