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Old 09-14-2004, 02:14 PM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 672
Default Re: favorite probability problems

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Here’s the proposition. You have 1,000 identical slips of paper. You write a distinct number on each piece of paper. There is no bound. The only limitations are that each number be unique and that a person of high school intelligence can quickly determine that one number is higher then another (i.e. 1.5345 is permissable as is 9,999,999.02 as is - 53 -- but i-squared is not). These 1,000 slips of paper are then mxed up in a hat. You randomly select a number and read it out loud. After reading a number, I either tell you to stop or go ahead and read the next number. I win if I stop you after you've read the highest number (before reading another number). I lose if you read the highest number and I tell you to go to the next number. I am only allowed to stop you one time. What percentage of the time will I win this proposition using an optimal strategy (and what is that strategy). There are no tricks (i.e. reading body language, marking the cards, etc.).

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Isn't the optimal strategy here to go through the first 1/e slips, then stop the person on the first number than the highest in those 1/e? I forget what the chance of winning is, I just remember thinking "Damn e shows up everywhere!" (your chances of winning might be 1/e, too. Must be a conspiracy!)
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