View Single Post
  #8  
Old 12-09-2005, 10:40 AM
newhizzle newhizzle is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: QQ free showdown

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn play is debatable. When the BB checkraises the flop after 2 people are committed, I would tentatively put him on this hand range: AT,A2,T2,22,TT,Ax and lastly, two diamonds. When the turn blanks off, you are behind every hand except a diamond draw. Is it worth raising this turn hoping the BB's on a flush draw? It might be. If you are positive that the BB would call preflop with any 2 diamonds, and he would also always checkraise the flop and lead the turn in this situation with any diamond draw then I think raising the turn is the correct move.

However, most players would not checkraise every diamond draw here nor would they necessarily lead the turn if they did checkraise. The dimaond draws that a good postflop player may checkraise with here are 5d4d,5d3d,5d2d,4d3d,4d2d,3d2d,KdJd. Thats 7 combinations. If we tighten up our range on the possible made hands the villain would checkraise the flop with to just TT,22,AQ,AK,AT,A2,T2s that would be 44 combinations. So based on these assumptions you are a 44-7 underdog. Since there is 8 BB in the pot once the villain bets the turn it appears you have the odds to call, but the problem is you will have to call any non diamond river(this fact lowers your effective odds to around 9-2, and if you are ahead you will still get rivered close to 20% of the time, and when you are behind you are drawing to 2 outs, and lastly the SB is still in the hand which also complicates things. Given the way the SB played his hand you are a strong favorite to have him beat, but it is still possible that the SB has a better hand than you that he wont let go.

Based on these assumptions you should not call the turn, which therefore means you should not raise the turn, so folding is the best move. But I will reiterate, if the BB will checkraise with any flushdraw on the flop and also lead the turn, then I think raising is your best move. Since you have no read on this player, I think you should fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

very good analysis man, thanks

i pretty much figured at the time that if i was going to continue, raising would be the best play so that if SB is on a draw i could charge him the max, i didnt know if BB was agressive or passive, a fold was probably the best play(he turned out to be 58/18/1.4 or something like that)

anyway, SB folded, the river was a blank and BB had KQo(1 diamond), charging himself the max on his gutshot and backdoor flush draw, i have a strong feeling that he would have called a river bet with his nut high card too, but im sure that a bet would not have been profitable in the long run
Reply With Quote