[jubeirm]

[ QUOTE ]

12 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .55(1-x)0.0
Break even => 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x < 4.6% => +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .45(1-x)0.0
Break even => 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x < 31.1% => +EV


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just plain wrong. Please ignore. If villian always calls our push we only need to win 43% of the time to break even which we get by having 12 or 15 outs. We are only in trouble if both (unlikly?) A and K are not outs. But, I don't have time to re-work the numbers. Fast math is wrong math.

--Jubei