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Old 10-09-2005, 05:51 AM
RickyG RickyG is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 151
Default Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn

[ QUOTE ]
Run, don't walk to push.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have bet this flop. I disagree with the analysis that he must have AA or KK here. As a bit of a LAG myself, I can tell you that the range of hands extends far beyond this to any good wrap, something like qqkj or kqjj and even worse. Letting the LAG control the action here is a mistake IMO, especially since he is likely to put you in a situation where you might consider folding a monster like second set and the nut flushdraw, AND a gutshot straight draw.

Assuming your set isnt winning (which it will be 50% of the time or more if we assume only AA and KK) you have 12 outs to improve. so 50% of the time you are winning, and 24% of the time you will draw o the best hand.

Assuming he always folds the AA and always calls the KK:
50% of the time, he folds, you win the pot: +$44
12.5% of the time, he calls, you win the pot: + 121 ( believe I did this right, the size of the final pot, minus the size of his all in bet on turn)
37.5% of the time: you go all in for ~$77 more and lose: -$77

I believe that makes going all in +$8 every time, but I dont have practice doing this type of math so my numbers may be wrong.

I also believe that lots of times he will have hands other than AA or KK (like KT, or 66) and he will sometimes call sometimes fold, making it even more +ev.

if you are the kind of player that will consider folding this on the turn, you should not be slowplaying on this flop.
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