[9cao]

You are only going to win 81% of the time versus an overpair when you hit a set on the flop. So assuming that every time we are against a big pair and we hit a set we stack off, +$322.40. If we hit our set 12% that becomes $38.70 and we are paying $40 to see this flop.

I know sometimes Villain has AK, hits and you stack off, but I think there are way more times that you hit your set and only get a flop continuation bet from a middle PP or missed AK. Villain could also have total garbage but that is not an assumption I like to make when I will see 5 overcards by the river most of the time.

So unless you plan on extracting some value from the times that you don't hit a set, which is very tricky with 22 this is an easy fold in my opinion.