Re: Pocket TT
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I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J)
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This could be what's happening, but this is a pretty lucky parlay for you if so. It's more likely that you're behind and/or that no one is folding anyway (as i described above).
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We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet)
If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet)
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All other things being equal, i would rather spend 1 bet to get to showdown than 1 bet to fold to an unknown's turn check/raise.
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So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small).
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UTG isn't folding for 1 bet on the turn after calling two cold on the flop.
I don't think you have much fold equity, and i really doubt you're getting both villains to fold here. For this and all the other reasons i've mentioned, i think the check turn/call river line is better.
I also think this decision is close, and i have laid out my arguments and you don't have to agree with me and neither one of us should lose much sleep either way.
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