View Single Post
  #3  
Old 11-27-2005, 05:03 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 132
Default Re: NHL Correlated Parlays

I would disagree. I don't have an NHL DB, but I think if a book allows a parlay of the under and the dog +1.5, there must be some correlation there.

You can think of it like this. Team A is superior to team B. In the long run, team A should outscore team B by a factor of 1.5. If the two teams are playing and a goal scores, there's a 60% chance team A scored.

Now, in a low scoring game - say, 5 goals, team B should cover the 1.5 spread 66.3% of the time. In a shootout (10 goals), team A will win by 2+ 63% of the time. Also note that odd totals favor team B's chances of winning or losing by just 1.

I'm not saying each goal scored is a completely independant event unaffected by previous action in the game, but you get the point. More goals = greater chance of blowout.

Also, Pinnacle does not allow parlays on NHL games (which usually means there is something to be won there).
Reply With Quote