[MarkD]

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The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn.

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No you are correct. We would have to lower the probabilities based on him folding some % of non-diamond hands on the flop. I still think we have to go to showdown against his likely range even with the discount.

Krishan

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I think this balances out a bit with the fact that he would have raised some of the hands that contain diamonds / straight draws. I wouldn't be surprised if the two cases sort of cancel each other out. It is much more important to consider the reverse implied odds of the situation when we are behind I think.

No matter what I think your sim shows we have enough equity that a showdown is +EV so let's get there cheaply.