Resume / intro at the end of the post, if you care... moved down there in case you don't care... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Detroit -3 over Green Bay
Everyone on the planet thinks Green Bay is a lock here (2+2 is one of the only places where I've seen a general consensus to go the other way). Mostly because of Detroit's last serious preseason game, the debacle against St. Louis. I think Detroit is going to come out and more than make up for their preseason fiasco. You're going to see Kevin Jones establish the run (he'll put up one of the best performances among RB in week one) and then Harrington will be able to throw over the top to his fantastic cadre of receivers - everyone shredded the Pack's pass defense last year, and this year Detroit has the most dangerous group of receivers anywhere. Favre will throw two, maybe three interceptions, Green gives away at least one fumble. Game of the week... 27-17 Lions.
Philly -1 at Atlanta
You're seeing a lot of respect for Vick in the dome with this line, and more than a little bit of doubt around T.O. But Philly's run defense is more solid than a lot of people give them credit for - they struggled last year in games which Trotter sat out (which made their season numbers look a lot worse), but firmed up dramatically once Trotter was back in the starting lineup. And T.O.'s preseason performances should put any doubt to rest about his ability to click with McNabb. Philly tore up Atlanta last year, and they're going to do it again this year. This is very close to being my game of the week. Philly 28-14.
Denver -5 at Miami.
Miami is, well, Miami. Denver is a team that traditionally starts the season strong and they should have no trouble dominating the Dolphins in Miami. Its pretty obvious, but the Dolphins are still really, really bad. Miami has a lot of key defensive personnel already banged up (Daniels, Seau, Thomas, Bowens), a terrible offensive line, and zero scoring threats outside of Chris Chambers. Miami is going to try to run, and Denver returned the core of the NFL's fourth best rush defense last year. Wouldn't be suprised to see this one go to a two-three touchdown lead for Denver, but I'll call it as 21-14
St. Louis -6.5 at San Francisco
As bad as the Ram's defense is, its not worse than San Franciso's offense. This is going to be an easy blowout i think. The line's crept up from opening at 4-4.5, but as long as its under 7 its playable in my opinion. Final 31-17 Rams
My other possible was Indy -3 over the Ravens, but this line scares me. That low it makes me think that its a sucker line to encourage action on Indy and that the Ravens would be the sleeper pick, so I'm going to stay away. I also think KC -3 over the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets isn't a bad play either... but not in my top four. The KC defense should be much improved over last year, the offense should be high powered and clicking from the get-go, and Pennington is still playing catch up from missing most of camp + preseason. This game might see some action, but doesn't rank
FYI my pics will be archived on my poker blog,
performify.com
I've been sports betting actively for eleven years. Last year was my first losing regular season - but I closed the gap to a profitable year with a near-flawless postseason including perfect championship + superbowl pics.
For the last three years i've maintained a free email list of my weekly picks - i've found that talking out my picks with people on the list has really helped improve my game selection.
Last year I found two+two and certainly took a lot from the forums here. I posted my pics for the first half of the year, and then sadly fell off 2+2 participation around mid-season. I'm going to try to stick with posting here all year, including playing in the 3+1 challenge every week.