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Old 05-24-2005, 12:47 PM
Zag Zag is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 515
Default Re: Balance between cheap cards and pot building with marginal hands

You're right, this is a better example.

I think that the answer to your question is that you should be betting for value less than you are. Consider if we ranked all possible hands at any given time from 1 to 10, where 1 is playing the board and 10 is the invulnerable stone cold nuts. If you bet, the most common reaction from your opponent is that he will fold anything 5 or less, call with 6-8, and raise with 9-10.

Look what happens if you have a 7 and bet out. Almost all the hands worse than yours will fold, but all the better hands will call or raise. Therefore, your bet will gain you money only against an opponent holding a 6, and will either cost you money or not gain any. Now it is true that there is value to getting that 5 to fold, who might have improved to a better hand than yours, but it is little compared to the amount you lose to a 9 that raises you.

You say that you are concerned with giving up free cards, but how much does that really cost you? Since you only have a mediocre hand, anyway, you will be able to release it pretty easily anyway. The problem with getting drawn out on is much more pronounced when you have a 9 (very strong but vulnerable). With these hands, you are probably going to call the opponent down, so you are risking a lot more reverse implied odds.

So, for this hand, I like the bet out preflop and on the flop, but I think you should be done there. Since you are OOP, you are likely to get outplayed. When you check the turn, the opponent is likely to bet and you are going to fold, but them's the breaks. Since you can beat a bluff (plus you have a gutshot) you should call some of the time, based on your read, but your "usual" play here would be to check and fold an unhelpful turn.

Note, he might check behind, and it might be you who needs the free card. If he has an 8, then you are drawing for a 6 or a 7.
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