[Spicymoose]

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It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math.

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better. If you have can't estimate how often he would play a low ace the way he is, how often the way he is playing a PP the way he is, how often he is playing a set the way he is, how often he is playing 48o the way he is, then it is very hard to estimate how good we are on the river. We will never be able to perfectly estimate how he plays any hands, but we should try to get as good a guess as we can. If you are off by 50%, so be it, but that is better than just not including a hand at all in your estimate and saying 0%. The math may be a bit complicated, but I believe it is definetly doable for anyone who would give it a shot. If noone does it by tomorrow, I will probably attempt it.

Edit: I do think it is good to guess what you think is right though. I would think that this is an easy call, but I hope that the math shows it goes the other way, so that I can plug a potential leak.