[Lmn55d]

It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math. I have a pretty decent idea of how often I'm good here from playing hundreds of thousands of hands. If I look at the situation more specifically using math, my answer will become increasingly inaccurate because I really have no idea how often he checkraises mid pair on the flop for example. I have a much better idea of how often I'm good with this board, against this sort of player, with this overall action.