Re: 98s.
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It sounds like you've decided he can't have anything but a boat so why post the hand?
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I have decided he can't have 84, 43, A6, or 86. A somewhat small overpair is somewhat possible. 88, maybe, but doubtful IMO. 44, almost no chance at all.
I posted the hand because I figured I'd get good responses that'd help me put him on a hand.. not nearly impossible gapped connectors from EP on a player with a VPIP in the 10s.
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Betting 2/5 pot I consider weak, until proven otherwise (ie raise).
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I don't think the amount of the bet is nearly as important as the action that precedes it. He just lead into me again, OOP, after I reraised him big on the flop. Usually a weak lead here, which I don't consider $20 into $49 pot, is a draw.
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One thing I've noticed between this and your 97s post is that you're putting alot of faith in your opponents reads on you.
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I also don't see this. If anything it's my reads on my opponents.
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This thinking is going to be a huge advantage to you as you move up (especially $600NL+) but I think you may be putting too much value into image and folding equity at $200NL?
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I actually don't put much stock into this whole image thing. I don't advertise bluffs much at all. Recognizing my opponent as a decent and thinking player is as far as that stuff goes for me. Him recognizing me as the same comes with that territory.
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People want to make hands on rivers and see showdowns.
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I concur, but when I have 950 hands on a person that show he is a very tight player, I disregard the default read on players at $200 NL.
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Don't fold for 2/5 bet on the turn. I'm not going to speculate the river because there are numerous scare cards that could come, but assuming it's a blank (I'd like to see big cards on the river) I'd call a half-pot - 2/3 pot bet and raise any of his weak-ass fraction bets.
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Alrighty..
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