[torsken]

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I'm a fairly consistent winner at small stakes (0.25/0.50 to 1/2) no limit holdem, i.e. roughly +5BB/100 at most online poker rooms.


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over how many hands? do you have pokertracker?


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But I have a really severe problem. Time after time after time I get very bad losing streaks that burns up most or all of my hard earned bankroll.

During these streaks I usually push 70/30, 60/40 and 55/45 edges very hard. It seems to me that I always lose the close gambles when I'm off balance.


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so when you are NOT in one of those "streaks" you don't push those edges very hard? if not, then how do you maintain 5+BB/100. 70/30 btw is a [censored] MASSIVE edge. 55/45 is more of the everyday kind of edge.

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Probably real tilt is part of the picture, but how can you explain my ability to actually predict those semi-bad beats that are going to happen to me when I'm running badly?

For some reason I'm particularly prone to lose big pushing set against flush or straight draws, and small two pair against a big pair. My opponents draw out in those large key pots far more often than their 5-7 outs suggest, and it's driving me crazy.

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this i assure you is selective memory coupled with short intervals between the "hits" they get. you dont remember actively when they DIDN"T hit and you won a decent pot. but you will never forget the times they do hit and it causes a decent to big loss.

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It feels like I'm working my a*s off to create a small edge, but at the end of the day it's all eaten up by pure variance and by paying way too much rake compared to my tiny edge.

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get rake back now.

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I'm extremely frustrated. Time to stop playing poker for good?

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no. time to understand stuff better.

Barron

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This is exactly the kind of irrelevant, nonconstructive, condecending reply I feared I would get.

I'm using Poker tracker with about 300k hands in the database. My winning rate at Prima/Bet Holdem (with rakeback) and Party Poker with 100k+ hands is 4.67BB/100 and 8.33BB/100 respectively

No, I'm not a great player, but neither a sucker, and I understand poker odds perfectly well, probably at least as good as you, sir.

Regarding how easily 70/30 edges comes about you're completely wrong. Some simple examples:

Small two pair vs overpair:

Board: Td 9h 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 72.9293 % 72.93% 00.00% { Ts9s }
Hand 2: 27.0707 % 27.07% 00.00% { KdKh }

Overpair vs top pair+kicker

Board: Qs 3c 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 78.1818 % 78.18% 00.00% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 21.8182 % 21.82% 00.00% { AhQd }

I usually don't push with QQ vs AK (56-58%) type of edges unless I have a very deep bankroll, since the rake makes it kind of valueless at those limits except for metagame purposes that are quite overvalued anyway.