[AviD]

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i think ur the best babe!!!

actually i woulda done the same or folded....but u have a read on the table and i know how u play...so i agree with ur raise there...and its not something u do often on a board like this with a hand like u have...so i dont see this as a neg thing for u overall....but then again i hear or see ur hands 1st hand more than others...so i know ur logic...


plus the whole being good friends for 5 yrs thing...

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you and avid can both learn alot from this situation.

imo it is wrong to raise here. if you wanted to find a leak, this is it. and its not the raise, or the instinct THIS TIME...but the desperate attempt to win a big pot which will occur more than this one rarity. especially at loose games which should be the most profitable. you, avid, and everyone has to understand that pulling these moves in loose games costs you money. i'd say this situational raise and bet (3bbs) cost avid probably over .75bbs in EV. to think these things will work is wishful thinking that does not belong at a poker table.

the "it" i referred to earlier was an instincual analysis that does not fully incorporate the math of the situation. you dont need to do all of that % up there...just look at the odds you're getting to pull the move and realize there is a shared calling % and that you may have to bet again.

-Barron

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While I did not prompt peachy to post and do not agree with her sentiments here...I am not sure I 100% agree with the mathematical only aspect of this hand.

This was NOT a desperation move, I did not feel like I just HAD to take a shot at this pot. I've let a TON of pots go the other way, and I don't play some loose aggressive bluffing style with a mentality that I MUST win EVERY pot I enter. It's NOT wishful thinking in raising in this spot.

I think there has been alot of confusion on exactly why I made the raise, and based on your response it appears it comes across as I was afraid of letting my hand go here. I wasn't playing my cards AT ALL on the turn, I was playing YAK and everyone behind me.

My cards didn't matter here at all, I watched this hand go down and saw how everyone reacted from preflop calling, to flop disinterested checking, to turn disinterested checking. I was 100% confident YAK was folding to my raise without question, so my only concern was would my raise push out a T IF anyone even held one, and oddly enough the only player I was worried about raising was the BB to my immediate left who is capable of CRing that turn to protect his T but certainly wouldn't 3-bet it. Everyone else (weak, loose, passive players) would call a single bet but doubtfully a CR. As oblivious as these players are, they DO recognize a check raise is a STRONG move and I am trying to represent that 6 IN THEIR MINDS. They see the two 6s, even if they have an 8 or a T, the still see those two 6s on board and me in the SB (who hasn't raised any hands in an hour or two) and have $80 to call. BB folded his T as it got exposed, so my read there was correct that he (and likely everyone else would fold even a T there). So my only final concern was if someone turned a flush draw and knew they could beat my represented 6 if they hit. Following up with a river bet was a necessary evil if someone called, just in case they had a stronger A than I did but knew they couldn't call a river bet. I got one caller and when he folds to the river bet, its obvious he had the flush draw.

And again, this is NOT a standard play for me with any regularity. And as I said in another post, I don't think I've ever made this type of play before. I just felt like there was a puzzle in front of me, and I had put all the pieces together and felt I had an excellent chance of stealing this pot. Above all else, this "move" was not some desperate or wishful attempt, I felt like I was making a strong move with a good chance at winning the hand. Again its not even my hand that was an issue, the cards were moot...I was entirely playing the table.

Another huge misconception or perhaps inability of my own is putting 9 people on hands. Who here can actually put 9 people on hands? I have no clue what they have, I just know that of the 9...none looked very confident or interested in continuing. That was a huge premise to my decision and I attempted to exert the maximum pressure in a large pot because I felt they would concede to that pressure.

If you factor that into the math, then I am expecting only strong draws better than a 6 to call...even in this loose game. And in this particular game, I felt these loose passives were very inclined to call 1 bet on any street but very inclined to fold to aggression as I had observed in previous hands.

I can't challenge the math directly because there is no "instinct" factor I can add to the computation, but if I was certain everyone without a 6 or a strong draw would fold and those same players would have bet a 6 or better on the turn, I can't see how that factor does not improve the chances of me winning this hand.

Again, I will keep this hand very fresh in my perspective as I've seen opportunities like this before but never pulled the trigger. Should I pull the trigger, I guess I'm still not confident I was right or wrong in this spot. Many of the arguments illustrated here are taking this hand entirely at face value, in a very static and straight forward manner. This is why it's hard to convey the dynamic nature of a specific game with specific players involved.

I don't see this opportunity presenting itself much, but I will consider all the advice and suggestions provided...I guess experience will tell the tale, and I am in full recognition that this type of play may indeed be -EV but I honestly think the only convincing factor for me will be experience and keeping track of it. I won't ignore what's been discussed and consider myself right, otherwise I would be ignoring a potential leak (although not significant because this situation hardly ever comes up for me).

Thanks for the feedback Mr. Stat Man! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]