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Old 04-13-2005, 05:00 PM
David K. David K. is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 30
Default Re: Probability of flopping 1 card flush draw?

You're adding the probability that the 3 of them are diamonds 3 times:

P(1st and 2nd cards are diamonds, 3rd is or is not a diamond)+
P(2nd & 3rd cards are diamonds, 3rd is or is not a diamond)+
P(1st & 3rd cards are diamonds, 3rd is or is not a diamond)

That's your mistake. You probably have the right result if you subtract 2x0.84 from your result.

The proper way to calculate those odds are with combinations (Cn,p), the easy way is by subtracting the odds of NOT making your flush to 1.
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