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Old 12-27-2005, 03:46 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Position, Is it REALLY that important in some games.

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What I am having problems with is that if we have 3 opponents with each having 22, 33, 44 and I have KK then they have more outs to improve than I do. Any 2, 3, or 4 trips up and beats us if we do not improve.

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AA is improved by fewer cards than 32o. AA is a much better hand. Don't count outs for the hand that is ahead.

KK wins 55.6% hot-and-cold against 44, 33, and 22, which means every $1 put in preflop returns $2.23, for a $1.23 profit. If you were only up against 44 and 33, every dollar would return $2.03. These are obviously better than being heads up, where every dollar would return less than $2; against 44 the actual value is $1.61. So, even if you knew your opponents had distinct low pocket pairs, you would generally 3 callers instead of 2, and 2 callers instead of 1. You are happier to see each additional call.

This assumes the blinds and the implied odds are negligible and they don't bluff you off your hand when an ace hits.

What about on later streets? Let us ignore the case that someone has a set already or has more than 2 outs. Suppose the players with 44, 33, and 22 put in 3 small bets preflop and one small bet on the flop. You are out of position and bet out. If someone rivers a set, you will pay off 2 bets on the river since you don't notice they never bluff. If no one rivers a set, you'll be called but not overcalled. How many callers do you want in this situation?

The pot contains 8 big bets. If you take down the pot, that is worth 8 BB.

If you get 1 caller, you gain 10 BB 38/40 of the time, and lose 3 BB 2/40. That is worth 9.35 BB.

If you get 2 callers, you gain 11 BB 36/40 of the time, and lose 3 BB 4/40. That is worth 9.60 BB.

If you get 3 callers, you gain 12 BB 34/40 of the time, and lose 3 BB 6/40. That is worth 9.75 BB.

If someone wanted to hop in with an unimproved 55 at that point without matching the bets on earlier streets, you should let them (9.80 BB).

There is some schooling effect. You aren't gaining as much as they are losing by making the overcall, since the overcall helps the players who already called. However, this effect is not large enough that you would be better off if they folded. If you like money, you want as many of them to call as possible.
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