Thread: A22 hand
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Old 09-30-2005, 03:09 PM
Mendacious Mendacious is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 41
Default Re: A22 hand

Buzz-- AA2J rainbow is behind EVERY SINGLE Ace and two low cards hands. ALL of them. This is not monster under the bed.

If your opponent has Ace, which you admit will happen a large percentage of the time, I believe it is statistically MOST likely that he has at least 2 other low cards with it.

If your opponent holds and Ace, there are 25 more low cards in the deck, and only 19 remaining hi cards. Clearly it is more probable that of his other 3 cards, it is more likely that 2 or more are low than 2 or more are hi. I'd say it is about 58/42 if the Ace is in someone's hand. then you are behind, and in a substantial number of those cases it approaches 60/40 that you are behind.

With 3 callers in the hand I think there is a GREAT chance that the Ace is in one of their hands, and almost a 58/42 chance that if it is you are quite a bit behind. These odds get rapidly worse if the Ace is calling your bets or firing back.

Bottom line, its not that valuable a hand no matter how nice it looks.

Now if the other low draws keep pumping money into the pot, you are going to be +EV, in my experience, and I HAVE had this scenario more than a few times in PL, you wind up heads up against the other Ace and a low draw, and you are in a losing situation.

two dimes A34K vs AA2J hand
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