[cero_z]

Hi cwl,

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a good percentage of the time im winning on the turn and he is drawing fairly thin. when i check the turn i think i stand a very good chance of getting a pottish sized bet on the river, either when he bluffs at it or when i make a bet that looks a lot like me betting a busted draw. this also minimizes the risks of getting bet off my hand or putting in too much with a second best hand. my hand is good enough that i dont really need to make him fold but not good enough that i want to catch a ton of heat.

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Excellent thought process and explanation.

I would tend to call on the river, because of two things. One is that he has plenty of reason to think you don't have much, and yet he bet a lot. If he had a hand "worth" 4800 on the river, I don't think he'd bet that much, since you are unlikely to have enough to call with. It's much more likely in my mind that he has nothing, but is afraid you have a bigger nothing, like an Ace-high busted flush draw.

The other reason is that if he actually held a big hand, he probably had it on the turn, and would've probably bet again after getting 400 called on a draw-heavy flop. If he actually has a big hand, I think 22 is the one, and in that case, I still think he's likely to bet out on the river, or check-raise a lesser amount.

Interesting hand; I'm curious to hear your thoughts and the results.