View Single Post
  #4  
Old 10-27-2005, 04:06 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: An In Depth View of Tournament EV and Short Term Variance

I've been thinking some about your #2 recently (that sounds a little... gross, if you think about it, so don't), and I'd say that a 'read' online is rare. Harrington says that even the best players can never put their opponents on a single hand, only on a range of hands. Someone, and I've no idea who, on this forum said that when playing online, ALL you can do is make plays that are +EV against the range of hands your opponent could be playing. In other words, I know Villain could be pushing an overpair or a flush draw, and I have no way of knowing which in this instance, but mathematically I am getting the right odds from the pot to call, given the probability that he has one of these holdings.

A read helps you to determine which of the hands within Villain's range he is holding this time. Keep the hands and flop cards the same but move to a live tournament. Now, Villain makes the same push, and my first thought is, "He could have a flush draw or an overpair." But, I might be able to sense some nervousness on his part, or notice that he moved his chips in with his left hand, or he ate his Oreo, or whatever, and get a read on which hand in his range he is holding this time. This isn't impossible to do online, as the time Villain took to make his bet or the amount he bet (did he type in 350 or use the slider to make a bet of 347) could reveal a tell, but you certainly get a lot less information.

So I would say in your 11r hand, you didn't have a read. You just knew Villain's range was very wide, because you'd seen him make the same bet on prior occasions when you suspected he was bluffing. It's quite possible he would have taken the same line if he held pocket 2's and made a set on the river. So you didn't precisely have a read telling you that he was bluffing rather than pushing a set, you simply (and correctly) put him on a very wide range of hands, and then made a +EV call against that range. In other words, you knew he'd be bluffing often enough to make a call profitable.

In this sense, online poker is almost exclusively a game of identifying and manipulating mathematical probabilities. You pay attention to your opponents so that you can get the best sense of the range of hands they could have in any given situation, and you make yourself difficult to 'read' simply by taking lines that don't allow your opponents to put you on a very narrow range. Reads, at least as I would define the term, rarely come into play.
Reply With Quote