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Old 11-28-2005, 03:04 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: 10% refund question

This works a lot like a sticky bonus. It can be +EV, but you have to be careful.

You should set a stop-loss and a stop-win, and make large bets when between these values.

Suppose you win 1 unit with probability .495, and lose with probability .505. Suppose you set a stop-loss of L and a stop-win of W. The probability of winning W units is (c^L - 1)/(c^(L+W)-1), where c=.505/.495~1.0202. The probability of losing L*9/10 units is (c^(L+W)-c^(L))/(c^(L+W)-1). (Derivation.) The optimum occurs at L=3, W=3, where the EV is +0.0645 units. The EV is positive for any L,W adding up to 10 or less, and negative for L+W>10.
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