Re: 10% refund question
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This problem is a tricky one. "Bet it all at once and it's +ev" was the first thing that occurred to me too. Ok, say you bet $100 and lose. If you really think the proposition is +ev, nothing has changed. You still have exactly the same proposition. Why not make another bet if that proposition was +ev. The fact that you have already done it once cannot matter to whether doing it now makes sense. So, while I can't quite wrap my brain around it, I'm in the -ev camp on this one.
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The reason you can't keep making bets is because the refund if for the net result of all of your play. You don't get to play one hand, get a 10% refund, then play another. You don't get the refund on a per-hand basis, but only at the end of the qualifying period of time.
Back to your example, say you lost a hand, and decide to do it again, and now win a hand, you LOSE that 10% rebate that you were lined up to receive after the first hand, since you are not at a net loss now.
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