View Single Post
  #17  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:30 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 25
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you made 1000 $10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose $100 over that span and would be rebated $10 still losing $90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


A 10% rebate on losses creates a +EV situation. You are just not looking at it properly.

Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...

Deposit $100 and bet it all:
49% of the time, I end up with $200;
51% of the time, I end up with $10.

On average, I will end up with $103.

Clearly, this is +EV.

Acme
Reply With Quote