Re: 10% refund question
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Suppose you made 1000 $10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose $100 over that span and would be rebated $10 still losing $90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.
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A 10% rebate on losses creates a +EV situation. You are just not looking at it properly.
Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...
Deposit $100 and bet it all:
49% of the time, I end up with $200;
51% of the time, I end up with $10.
On average, I will end up with $103.
Clearly, this is +EV.
Acme
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