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Old 09-16-2004, 11:36 PM
reecelights reecelights is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Bristol, PA
Posts: 87
Default Re: Is this play too aggressive?

[ QUOTE ]
Given these factors I decided to go for it. At first I thought it might actually be a bad call, but then when I thought about it more and counted my outs, 9 hearts, 4 kings, and 4 aces without knowing what he has and I think it might have been more reasonable.

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I think you miscalculated your outs. You don't have 4 A and 4 K, only 3. Also, when I read it (before looking at the results), I put him on AT or a set. If he had AT, your A was dead, meaning you had 3 K and 9 hearts for 12 outs. This was the twodimes calculation you did, about a 48% win rate, meaning you could only catch a K, a heart, or running QJ to win. If, however, he had a set of 7s or Ts, you lose one out of the flush draw, lose As and Ks as outs because if you catch runners he makes a boat, and would have to catch running QJ to make a straight or straight flush, making you a 3-1 underdog.

As for his call...at 10/1 he is likely to misread you and assume his TPTK is the best hand and call, in which case, it's a bad call. If he's a good player and doesn't know you, it's also very possible he puts you on exactly the hand you had or at the 10/1 level, assumes you're not very good yourself and puts you on KT, QT, or JT, especially this early in the tourney when he knows there are fish in the water.

As for whether or not it's too aggressive? Probably, yes. You do have a good chance of doubling up now, but you have an equally bad chance at being busted. Also, if you do make your hand, others are likely to call you later on and suck out on you assuming you are semi-bluffing with an unmade hand. If you make this bet with a made hand, your push gets more respect later, making it easier to steal with a semi-bluff.

Save the coin flips for the bubble and beyond.
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