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Old 12-20-2005, 07:46 AM
SammyKid11 SammyKid11 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 401
Default Re: What was the last team to miss the NFL playoffs as good as SD?

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If they are so good, why are they losing games? I can see losing 1 or 2 games to inferior teams, but 5?

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I think you're seriously underestimating the variance involved each week in football...and things that can be inferred from margin of victory/defeat. The Chargers have lost 5 games (which is not, you know, too bad...they're playing almost .660 football). Those games are:
28-24 to Dallas (a team in the playoff hunt)
20-17 at Denver (a team that's squarely in the playoffs)
24-22 to Pittsburgh (a team in the playoff hunt)
20-17 at Philadelphia (when TO was still there and before Donovan got so hurt that he required surgery...ie- when they played Philly, they were a playoff-bound team -- AND they lost on a fluke)
23-21 to Miami (and this is SINCE the Dolphins have been playing well)

So, five losses, ALL by 4 points or less, against five teams who are either in the playoffs, in the playoff hunt, or at the time of their game PLAYING like a playoff team. That doesn't exactly scream "bad team" to me -- maybe you can say "not clutch"...but not untalented. And since this thread is about if there's ever been a team as GOOD as the Chargers to miss the playoffs...this distinction is warranted.

Now, the nine wins:
45-23 vs. NYG (demolishing a virtual lock playoff team)
41-17 at New England (demolishing a playoff team, defending champs, on the road)
27-14 at Oakland (lackluster, yet comfortable win on the road over a mediocre-to-bad team
28-20 vs. KC (solid win vs. division rival and a team in the playoff hunt)
31-26 at NYJ (maybe their only decidedly unimpressive win)
48-10 vs. Buffalo (sure, the Bills are bad...but you beat an NFL team by 38 and you're doing something right)
23-17 at Washington (good road win vs. playoff contender)
34-10 vs. Oakland (waxing the floor with bad team at home)
26-17 at Indianapolis (probably the most impressive, gutsy win by any team this season over the super-dominant, previously-undefeated, undisputed best team in the NFL at their place)

That examination of their schedule ought to tell you all you need to know. First of all, their record is not at all bad. Second of all, when you factor in margin of victory/defeat, it's easy to see that this is a very good team.

Moreover, there's the strength of schedule. Jeff Sagarin has San Diego playing THE toughest schedule in the NFL. Compare that to the teams they're in direct competition with for the playoffs:
Pittsburgh (playing the 5th-toughest)
Denver (playing the 12th-toughest)
Jacksonville (playing the 16th-toughest)

Or even more of the lock AFC playoff teams:
Indianapolis (playing the 27th-toughest)
Cincinatti (playing the 19th-toughest)
New England (playing the 14th-toughest)

These things, when viewed from the standpoint of trying to assess a team's true talent level, have a major impact. You might see it as a simple matter of "if they're so good, why have they lost 5 games," but I'm sorry - that's a very sophomoric look at the Chargers' true worthiness of being involved in the playoffs. I'm glad it's about record in the NFL instead of BS stuff like power ratings, polls, and schedule strength...but in this isolated case, it'd be somehow wrong if a team of San Diego's caliber failed to get in.

Just as a sidenote...I don't, nor have I ever, even so much as lived in California. This isn't a homer-based view...I'm a Texans fan. While I appreciate the Chargers, I have nothing more tied to them than any other NFL team save Houston.
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