Greetings,

I hope this post is not off-topic as it deals with blackjack (it just as easily could deal with poker or other gambling games). Anyways, I was thinking back to my earlier gambling days and about a friend I used to play blackjack with.

My friend came into an inheritance of $70,000 and decided he was going to try to become a professional gambler playing blackjack at a tribal casino in Minnesota (Mystic Lake Casino). He was a very solid blackjack player and knew basic strategy and also several counting systems.

However, he considered the counting systems too boring and didn't like the grind. For some confounded reason he had this non-random shuffle theory and was influenced by 'New Blackjack.' In other words, he just used basic strategy and his betting was not dictated by the true count.

My opinion is that he was very lucky and was able to defy the odds for two years. The high-stake rules at Mystic were average in 1993-1995 (hand shuffled, 4-6 decks, split any two once, double after split, stay on soft seventeen). So, he probably was facing about a disadvantage of .005% (half a percent). Nevertheless, he was usually playing $25 tables and betting two hands between $25 and $500 on each hand. He played about 30 hours a week. After about one year of playing he was ahead $50,000! This would seem almost impossible given the negative expectation he was facing. The next year was more mixed and he ended having some long losing streaks. However, he was still ended up $30,000 ahead for the year. The next year he blew his profit plus $40,000 of his inheritance (playing $100 tables primarily).

It just surprises me that somebody can log so many sessions and play so many hands facing a negative expectation and win (or even stay alive). The reason this interests me is because I've recently started playing poker again (stopped playing for 3 years) and have had a substantial win rate for the last four months. I've probably logged over 500 hours (playing 3 tables at once) and I'm approximately 1,500 BB ahead (1/2 limit). I'm just wondering at what point you can say with reasonable certainty that skill is responsible for winning and not luck? I know this question will be hard to answer with the information I supplied. Nevertheless, any insights or comments would be greatly appreciated.

JeffreyREBT "Wherein I don't promise to make you rich without trying, or even trying very hard; I do promise to say things that will make you FEEL rich."