[ekky]

I posted this on the MTT forum, and someone recommended that i posted it here... so I did.

I think its an exceptionally valid point in MTTs.. wondered what you all thought

As the title suggests, this is primarily about being honest to yourself about the situation you are in, be it a cash table/sng/multi.. although it primarily applies to MTT's.

I was observing/helping a friend in a tournament today, which I feel encapsulates the point perfectly:

Scenario:

Blinds 1/2k

Stacks.. Hero 47k
Villain 53k

Situation in the tourny.. in the money and fast approaching the final table.

Hero's hand: 9/9
position: Big Blind

Villains hand: not yet..
position: Small blind

The action was uneventful, folded around to the cutoff.. who made it 3.5k. The small blind just smooth called... and hero made it 10k even.

Cut off instantly folded, and small blind went all in.

Hero instantly called.

I asked hero what his thinking was, and he said something like this:

"well, I put the person on a range of AK--AQ.. and any pair, therefore I am a big favorite against that hand. I am getting a pot overlay, so I insta-call"

I was watching ardently WITH him, and the SB had folded every blind steal, and his only showndown hands were AA/KK/AK/AA

In short, the small blind was not playing here without AA/KK/QQ/AK and maybe JJ.

When it came to hero's call... the pot was 3.5 + 3.5+ 10 + 47 = so he had to call 37k to win 64k.. getting 1.72/1.. meaning he needs 36.6% equity for this move to be ChipEV neutral, not getting into the discrepancies of the value of chips won vs chips lost.

His actual equity was about 33%.. and if you think the range of the SB is too tight? trust me... the applied range is almost too loose.

In short, it was a bad call given the correct assumptions.

now... the main thrust of this post, was about the range he applied... and made his range FIT the pot odds.

He saw that he was getting good odds, and decided that he wanted to take part in the action, and rather then be objective, and issue a correct range of hands for this person who was tighter then a <insert example>, he decided to almost fabricate a range, to suit:

a) his hand
b) the pot odds

After he lost the hand (the guy had AA naturally) he said again "oh well.. i was ahead of his range of hands" and used that to convince himself it was the correct move.

Given an objective analysis of the scenario, it was clearly an incorrect play... .but in his post tournament analysis, he made the cardinal sin of making his estimates fit his situation.

This is not an isolated example however. This behaviour is rampant. Its the single most common reason (in my opine) why people make it to a certain stage in a tournament and then *blow up*. They lose the objectivity that is essential, in order to make correct decisions.

The math of poker is USELESS, unless you are objective, and apply objective and accurate ranges for your opponents.If you are one of the people who makes the range fit the situation,you are fooling yourself, and your bankroll.

Any poker situation can be governed by math, as long as you apply stipulations and situational considerations. If these are incorrect, then your subsequent play will also be incorrect.

So, whilst I re-read this wittering and wonder what the point was, my message is:

always be honest about the situation you are in, and more importantly, dont let the situation alter your estimations of your villains hand ranges/folding liklihoods otherwise whilst the application of math mite be correct, the usefulness of it is null.