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Old 10-22-2005, 12:30 AM
Jerrod Ankenman Jerrod Ankenman is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 40
Default Re: For the mathematically minded

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It is an important contribution. Of all the coins in the history of the world that have been flipped 21 times heads in a row, I'll bet none of them were fair.

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Assuming "fair" means "between .495 and .505" or some other suitable approximation, I'll take that bet. 5 in 10,000,000 isn't so unlikely that it's never happened in the history of the world.

Now, I'll give you a fun example of a claim that hasn't happened in the history of the world. Someone once claimed to me that they were watching for AQ vs AK showdowns on PokerStars all in preflop and made a spreadsheet where they marked the result. They claimed that after 2000 trials, AQ had won 50%. Bill and I estimated the probability of this happening. It was like 1 in all the electrons in the universe.

(obviously, either the site is rigged which i doubt or there's a little selection bias problem here)

jerrod
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