Re: reliability (no poker content)
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i think uuDevil is on the right track... I simply used the Poisson formula, and got a bit different number, with the probability being ~.0081, resulting in about 23.9, so 24... basically the same though...
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look, will one of you two tell me why you're disregarding the poisson? it was designed for situations of this sort...
and btw, for a triple occurence, only approximately 1 will occur in a year...
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