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Old 08-03-2005, 02:21 AM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
Posts: 246
Default Re: reliability (no poker content)

I'm unreliable, but my answer is 25.

Method:

The expected #failures in a 3-hr period is 400/(24*365/3)=.137

The probability of 2 or more failures in a 3-hr period is

1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)= 1-exp(-.137)*(.137)^0/0!-exp(-.137)*(.137)^1/1!= .0857

The expected number of times 2 or more failures will occur in the same 3-hr period over a year is

.0857*(24*365/3)=25.0
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