[detruncate]

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Button will probably raise top pair instinctivly. Button will probably put our hero on a single hand (as bad players regularly do) like AK and wants to punish him.

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Fair enough. But what about the SB, who cold-called? Also, at what point do you think you're most likely against a set, etc?

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How often does the pf raiser put in a continuation bet on the flop in general terms? Remember that Villain usually doesn't know enough about poker to consider things like the number of players in the hand and the composition of the flop. He just sees people "bluffing" all the time after raising pf and could therefore be raising any number of things. He has to feel pretty good about TP here, for instance. There's also a non-insignificant chance that Villain is laggy and wants to put pressure on us since we seem fairly likely to have whiffed.

The cold-caller shouldn't worry us until we're given reason to worry. People tend to call too much. He might be planning to slowplay a set, but there are any number of other reasons for a loose player to call.

We start to worry about being against a set when someone says very clearly that they have a hand they like a lot and don't much care what we have.