[senjitsu]

I can't speak for Ciaffone's take on the issue as I havent read his book (His book is definitely on my "to read" list though), but generally it is always sound startegy to call into a pot offering the correct odds. If doing so makes the varience too severe, then you have to find a smaller game or a bigger roll...

Thaty said, many players are a bit optimistic about their implied odds, either by incorrectly assuming that they will be paid off if they hit, or by incorrectly assuming that their draw will be good if it hits.

But given that the pot is really laying 14:1 and you're a only a 13-1 dog, you have a +ev situation, and passing it up is a mistake.

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I was reading Ciaffone's nl/pl book and have become confused about something. On the first page he gives a Limit scenario where a player has a gut shot and his implied odds are somewhere around 1:14. He doesn't state the implied odds but you can calculate it. Now he says lay it down and than makes a comment about taking longshots all night will widdle away your stack. I've always followed the theory that if my implied odds are 1:14 and my odds of hitting are 1:13 i'm going to play. But the more I think about it, I'm starting to think he has a point. Taking a lot of longshots puts a lot of of shorterm variance in my bankroll and I may just be better off passing and waiting for a better situation. I'm really not sure, any thoughts?

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