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Old 12-08-2005, 06:50 PM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Van down by the river
Posts: 176
Default Re: Bellagio 5K, Two Hands

Hand 1: If he had a draw on the flop, he got there, and you have a 11-13 out redraw (7-9 flush outs, 4 boat outs). The only way a river card can beat you if you are ahead is if he has a lower pair and hits a two outer. I suppose I can't entirely discount a 3 from his range, but it's unlikely.

If you bet and he pushes with a straight or a flush you are committed to calling.

I think you should want to get all your money in and to do it in a way that maximizing the amount he puts in when behind because you are going broke when he has a flush or straight. Checkraise allin, mainly because many of the hands you are ahead of (middle pairs, e.g.) are more likely to pay you off on the turn than on the river if a 4th heart hits. If he checks behind, value bet any river.

Edit: yuck - I see the edit to two spades, two hearts now. In that case, maybe a bet is better. Seems like he could check a flush draw behind too often to make getting value from weaker pairs worth it. No longer the case that no river card can hurt you. Now half the deck might. If he's pretty likely to bet when checked to with a draw, I definitely like cr allin still.
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