What are standard streaks for not getting 1st due to variance?
Did multiple searches on this and didn't see any threads discussing it so thought I'd post one up.
I'm not talking about OOTM streaks, I'm just talking about lack of 1st place streaks. I just went 45 tournaments before I got a win. My ITM was the same as usual (actually slightly higher). Are streaks like that fairly common due to variance? What's your longest no tournament win streak?
I did some quick calculations in my calculator. I have about a 13.5% chance of getting first place according to SNG tracker. So, the chance of going 45 games with no tournament wins is: (0.865)^45 = 0.00146 = 0.146%. This will happen about 1/685 times for any given strech of 45 games. Not sure how to think about these numbers. Someone help me analyze this more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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