RESULTS and my 2 cents
Frankly, I am disappointed with most of the responses in this thread. I think Post-Oak, neon and Thabadguy are the only ones that had anything remotely worthwhile to say at all.
I think that those of you (and this is most of you) that are arguing that this is an “insanely” easy call, are idiots.
Rounding off a bit – I have to call $900 to win $1100. So I am getting about 1.22 to 1 on my money.
1/1.22 = .82 – so for this to be a “correct” call in the long run, I need to be ahead about 82% of the time. Now, of course if I am behind I will catch up about 25% of the time so, that 82% is reduced to about 60%. But there are also the times where Villain is semi-bluffing, I AM ahead but HE catches up and I lose. But anyway, to be conservative let’s just stick with 60%.
No one has really bothered to put my opponent on a hand. To me it is pretty simple – either he has the nuts or is semi-bluffing with a pair + diamond draw or 8d9d.
I would be really, really, really surprised to see 44 or 77 here. I cannot think of a single time I have seen someone play a set like that. Smooth-call flop, massive overbet on the turn just seems like a completely moronic way to build a pot with a set. Also, what possible two-pair hands could he have? T5, T4 are not likely for obvious reasons and 75 likely raises the flop. Also, is Villain making a $900 turn bet with any of these?
Remember also, that the only read I have on my opponent is that he limped with T7o. So, I know that he is loose – but I know nothing about his aggression.
So with that as my ONLY real read, do you all really think I am ahead here more than 60% of the time?
Against a “loose” unknown what is more likely?
a) He smooth calls the flop with an OESD and makes a massive overbet with the nuts on the turn (possibly playing with scared money and not wanting to be out-drawn himself), OR
b) He calls the flop with 8d9d, or pair + backdoor flush and makes a $900 semi-bluff into a $160 pot?
I am curious – how many of you routinely make huge semi-bluffs like this?
Thabadguy – I know you’d love to have me in your game because I’d even contemplate a fold here but if you were the Villain in this hand, given that I know you are LAG (the “AG” being the important part) of course I am much more likely to call. But against someone who I only know to be loose, I think it’s a different story entirely.
This game is about the RELATIVE strength of hands and what odds you are getting on your money.
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Anyway, in the actual hand there was just no way I could make myself fold. I called, Villain showed 86o for the nuts. The river didn’t pair the board.
As far as not raising pre-flop goes, I didn’t raise for many of the reasons Post-Oak cites in his post. For one, I was “mixing it up”. Secondly, with stacks this deep, I didn’t think raising to $30-$35 would do much to “narrow” the field.
It is hard to say if this particular hand would’ve played any different had I raised. I do think that whether or not to raise with TT in these game conditions makes for interesting discussion.
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