[TimM]

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But you have to admit that currently, abiogenesis (random molecules -> first cell) looks like a long shot. There are several stages in this process that we can't find a plausible mechanism for. Of course the dots will be joined eventually (just look at the history of biology), but until then we must concede that it does appear highly improbable.

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Not at all. Even the authors of Rare Earth admit that this process occurred very quickly on Earth - nearly the exact instant that life became possible, on a geologic timescale. There is a good chance that independently evolved microbial life is present on several other bodies in our own solar system.

Note that anyone using the Rare Earth hypothesis to argue for intelligent design is arguing for a flavor of ID where some creator simply set the initital conditions of our solar system (or the entire universe) in such a way that we would evolve.

Some have argued that even if we accept the Big Bang theory, we have to believe it was caused by an intelligent creator, since had the physical constants of our universe varied by the slightest amount, life would not be possible. But again this proves nothing. For example, our (finite) universe could be part of an infinite meta-universe where universes are randomly created with every possible set of initial conditions. And, of course, only the ones with perfect physical constants get noticed.