[W. Deranged]

So a couple more thoughts on the turn:

1. My bet really only "costs" about 2/3 of a bet since I have 8ish outs here.

2. Villain only needs to fold his share of the pot when he has something like TT (which is 5-5.5 bb or whatever) like 10-14% of the time or something for the bet to be profitable in that situation.

3. Villain's share of the pot with KQ or something is a little less than 1 bb, so he needs to fold only a little less than half the time with that hand for it to be profitable in that scenario.

So we could conceivably come up with a model where we look at the profit we might get in those situations versus the cost when we get called or check-raised. It's not obvious to me that that number will be -EV.