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Old 12-23-2005, 09:08 AM
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Default Re: Questionable play.... you decide.

You keep saying you are more often ahead than behind, but I think you are probably not considering the amount you are ahead and behind. You have a decent stack and are willing to gamble with the player who can break you as at best a couple of percent favourite.

According to PokerStove, you are around 60:40 to a random hand. However, does he really steal with a random hand? Or - is his hand likely to have some substance? Most steal hands are coin flips here.

Even if he plays over 50% of his cards (any pair, any suited, any broadway and then some non-suited cards like most Aces, Kings and a handful of Queens, Jacks, Tens and Nines), you are around about 11:9. To be honest, I would rather find a better situation for my chips. You have to give him pretty much an any two range to start getting any really significant advantage.

Even adding every 1, 2 or 3-gapper - you still are not a 60:40 favourite. (And I mean every, right down to 25o.) If we double his raising range on the button from his stats, from 16% to 32% of hands he is a slight favourite - though maybe I picked a favourable range.

Further, you say he is trying to run over the table. Does he want to do so so badly that he'll put over 60% of his stack at risk when you seem to have a hand you are interested in? Further, assuming he knows what he is doing to some extent - he has to know that you are going to call his push over the top of your reraise. I just do not see him having a completely worthless hand when he does that.

I quite like the idea of the stop and go, if I understand the concept fully. The whole idea is that you can avoid having to take a coin flip for your entire tournament. If he probably is not laying down pre-flop you are pretty much gambling - which you do not seem to think he is if you think 5s are likely to be "ahead" so often. If you think he would lay down to a big bet, you might go all-in - thinking that your 5s are probably a coin flip if he calls. (But, to be honest, 5s are just too easily dominated by many hands - any bigger pair, nearly any overcard suited connector, so on.)

To be honest, given your description of the villain in this hand - I do not even feel too bad about just laying them down. If you think he's trying to run over the table, you need to make a stand - but why here? You have the best possible position on a player that you feel is getting out of line. I would not waste this, you have an excellent opportunity to make a lot of chips as a much bigger favourite.

Long run, if you think you he has the range that makes you 11:9 or similar - yes, you are going to double up more often than not. That's a lot of variance though - 45% of the time you will be out of the tournament. I am pretty new at this, so I'm not sure how to work out if doubling up is worth falling out now 45% of the time.

Sorry if I have made a mistake, as I said - I'm pretty new to this. If anybody sees any gaping flaws I'd be happy to hear them. Good luck and I hope the 5s held up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
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