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Old 11-13-2005, 07:00 PM
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Default Re: $50+5: 3 left, A7s on button, M=3.6

I hate to be contrary, but if SB only calls with TT+, AQs+ and BB calls any two, this is -1.0% $EV. BB has to be folding about half the time to make this break-even, and about 70% of the time to hit the +.5% EV threshold.

Open-folding here is actually slightly +$EV, presumably because shorty is just too short to matter at the moment. Double him up at BB's expense and leave the positions the same, and this is an easy push.

Against a BB that's reasonably loose (or with a SB who's too tight), I'd fold this most of the time and worry about attacking the SB.

I've noticed that sometimes in situations like this, BB will spite call a push more often with a marginal-looking hand (like say QJo) than he will if the raise looks more "normal". I don't do it much, but I wonder if a smaller raise might get more folds, and hence be more +EV. You'd still have to call a re-steal, of course.
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