[Copernicus]

I dont like this play, especially if the kid has a stack of 20k+.

Assuming Youre only called if behind, you need to draw with at most 10 outs, probably more like 7, but lets say youve got 40% chance of winning if called by one player. What folding percentage you need for this to be a break even move?

You need both players to fold 40% of the time, or 63% each. Does each one of these players fold 2 out of 3 times? They have big stacks and are getting about 1.85/1 odds..ie they only need to perceive a 35% chance of winning to make this call... and that only makes it a break even deal

I dont think you have the FE for this play. I think the kid has to have anticipated a move from you to call the 500 and is ready to play it out.