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Old 12-14-2005, 01:29 AM
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Default Re: A hand where I felt all I could do was get to showdown and be a fi

FLOP: I would not cap this flop, becuz of the texture of this board and the opponent who is 3 betting. You raised preflop, there is not flush draw on this board, your opponent is 3 betting this flop with 2 people already committed for 2sb's, which means this 3 bet is more for value than for elimination even though it appears his 3 bet is pressuring you off your hand. He knows you can have an overpair, and he is telling you he doesnt care. Keep this in mind, a logical, tight, aggressive player is doing the 3 betting here.

Can he have a hand like KK or QQ? NOPE cuz he wouldve limp reraised you if he limped with those.

Can he have a straight draw with 86s that hes 3 betting becuz of his equity edge on the flop and possible free turn card? NOPE becuz he would fold this hand preflop.

Could he have a hand like 88? NOPE becuz he wouldnt 3 bet in this spot with 2 people already committed for 2 small bets, he would either call or fold and evaluate his best options if he made it to the turn. The same goes for a hand like A7s.

What about 99? NOPE for the same reasons as 88 and also becuz he wouldve raised 99 and maybe even 88 too judging by his stats.
So basically theres only one type of hand here the TAG can have that makes sense, its 77,55,22. Also of note is the villains postflop aggression numbers which really arent that high which furthur supports that he has a set.

There is actually a chance the BB or the UTG+1 outflopped you also, although on the flop I would be more concerned with MP1 then anybody else, but still UTG+1 cold calling on that flop is a bit odd.

Anyways I think youre drawing to 2 outs and your getting 8-1 and your not even closing the action so I think you should fold the flop. Bye Bye Aces.

TURN: Given that you made it this far you have to call, you have 2 ace outs and 4 dirty 3 outs, that is more than enough to call the turn.

RIVER: This pot is huge, I dont see how you can win though, but this pot is huge, I like your plan of calling one and not two.
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